Essay 18

Over the last several decades,the composition of the Democratic and Republican parties has changed in important ways. A major partisan shift has occurred in the South, but other demographic changes have also been identified. Changes in party composition are reflected at different rates in presidential elections than in congressional elections.
One specific trend identified in the graph above is that the percentage of electoral votes for democrats trends downward. From 1948 to 2000, Southern voters elected Democratic candidates to Congress more frequently than they elected Democratic candidates to the presidency. This was due to the incumbency advantage as well as Gerrymandering. District lines created safe seats/majority minority districts, which protected Democratic seats even though there were more Republican voters in statewide presidential elections.
Several other changes in party composition have emerged in the past few decades. For example, Catholics and Labor Union Members have become less reliable Democratic voters. Labor Union Members, specifically, have decreased in number and thus there are fewer Democratic supporters.
Women, in contrast, have become more reliable Democratic voters. They have increased in number and thus there are more Democratic supporters.Social conservatives were previously nonexistent and have now crystallized to become more reliable Republican voters as well.

Over the last several decades,
the composition of the Democratic and Republican parties has changed in
important ways. A major partisan shift has occurred in
the South, but other demographic changes have also
been identified. Changes in party composition are reflected
at different rates in presidential elections than
in congressional elections.
(a) Identify one specific trend evident in the figure above.
(b) Choose two of the following and use each to explain why southern voters from 1948
to 2000 were electing
Democratic candidates to Congress more frequently than choosing
Democratic candidates for the
presidency.
•
Incumbency advantage
•
Gerrymandering
•
Differences between state and national parties
(c) Several other changes in party
composition have emerged in the past few decades. Select three of the
following groups and for each explain how parties have changed in composition with respect to that group.
•
Catholics
•
Labor union members
•
Women
•
Social conservatives